Quicker than expected… some information from David Adams, the area education officer at Kent County Council:
The average pupil product from a new house is 0.28 of a primary aged child, meaning 100 homes would be expected to produce 28 primary aged pupils, and assuming they are spread evenly across the age ranges, would mean 4 children per year group.  The data you have presented would indicate (based on 2012) that if 225 new homes appeared overnight, the school would have been able to admit the pupil product in to Year r, and would have displaced the non-siblings from further afield. 
Clearly what is more difficult to manage is the arrival of school aged children into new houses, as the school will already be full.  There is no easy solution to this, as in reality families would be offered a place at a more distant school that had vacancies. 
Over time, these issues work themselves out the system.  As more local children are admitted in to year R, fewer children from Kennington are admitted, which over time reduces the number of sibling links for these families.  Once the housing has been completed and the initial cohort of school aged children have been displaced, things return to their natural state – families will move in and out, casual vacancies will exist and be filled.  But as most children enter the school in year R, over 6-7 years the school returns to meeting the needs of its community.
I love the idea of a house producing 0.28 of a child. If my house got together with my neighbours’ houses… maybe they could start a family?

About jasperbouverie

I am Jasper Bouverie. I have two blogs: jasperbouverie.com which is about promoting sustainability in the village of Wye in Kent (and beyond); and FunderFilms.com which I will fill with short films dedicated to promoting social and environmental awareness and change. Find me on Twitter: funderfilms and finelinej
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